p- ASPO-USA Conference Takeawaysbr / - IEA economist Fatih Birol: ‘We have to leave oil before it leaves us’ (interview)br / - New book by Colin Campbell: Peak Oil Personalitiesbr / - Peak Cheese: the bleak science of cheese depletion/p pa href=http://energybulletin.net/stories/2011-11-09/peak-oil-nov-9read more/a/p

p- Paul Krugman on solar innovation: Here Comes the Sunbr / - Solar Power and its Discontentsbr / - Five challenges facing the energy sector in 2012br / - 'Tipping Point': A primer on the Alberta tar sands/p pa href=http://energybulletin.net/stories/2011-11-09/energy-nov-9read more/a/p

pAs far as peak oil goes, most of us can agree that just as it did in the U.S. in 1970, global oil production will inevitably decline. The points of contention are the timing, the steepness of the decline, the impact on the global economy, and the ability of other energy sources to fill the supply gap. Some believe it will be a non-event, and some people believe it will be catastrophic./p pI still believe in the Peak Lite scenario; in fact I think that view has been validated. I also believe that my view on the Long Recession is supported by the state of the economy as well as the continued strength in oil prices. As far as the consequences of peak oil, I believe that what we are seeing now with respect to the economy is a prelude to what we will see for the next few years/p pa href=http://energybulletin.net/stories/2011-11-08/peak-oil-five-most-common-misconceptionsread more/a/p

pspan class=inline inline-leftimg src=http://energybulletin.net/sites/default/files/images/alaska_pipeline-180x180.thumbnail.jpg alt= title= class=image image-thumbnail width=100 height=100 //spanIn a widely-circulated article in September 2011, Chris Skrebowski, who runs a peak oil consulting firm and was editor of the Petroleum Review for eleven years until 2008, argued that there are two forms of oil peak. One is, or will be, caused directly by depletion – the oil is no longer in the ground in sufficient quantities for producers to be able to maintain production. The other is the economic oil peak, which he says is the “price at which oil becomes unaffordable to consume and therefore to produce.” He says that oil becomes unaffordable when the “cost of the supply exceeds the price economies can pay without destroying growth at a given point in time.” In other words, the unaffordable limit is passed when extra cost of the oil after a price increase captures all, or more, of the increase in income that the growth process seemed likely to deliver./p div class=image-clear/divpa href=http://energybulletin.net/stories/2011-11-08/will-%E2%80%9Ceconomic-price%E2%80%9D-limit-oil-productionread more/a/p

pI recently attended the ASPO-USA annual conference in Washington, DC. Overall, I found the presentations and discussion to be very engaging. The vibe this year had much less of a doomsday feel than last year and the topic of how best to tell an engaging Peak Oil story came up often. In the notes below I attempt to recap the sessions I attended with the caveat that these notes reflect primarily what I paid attention to. No attempt is made to be complete or unbiased in my coverage of the conference. I apologize in advance for any omissions or misrepresentations. In the next few weeks ASPO should make videos of the presentations available on aspo.tv./p pa href=http://energybulletin.net/stories/2011-11-08/2011-aspo-usa-conference-day-1read more/a/p

pI just attended the Saturday session of the 2011 ASPO USA conference...There were four morning sessions listed: Investor's Roundtable featured Robert Rapier, whose R-Squared blog I read a bit, Community Adaptation and the Post-Peak Economy with ArchDruid John Michael Greer and Kollapsnik Dmitry Orlov, each of whom I follow a lot, Bringing Peak Oil into the National Policy Debate, and Innovative Communications, Writing a New American Story with Farmer/Author Sharon Astyk, who I also follow a lot. I chose Community Adaptation and sat in the front row./p pa href=http://energybulletin.net/stories/2011-11-08/aspo-conference-adapting-future-scenariosread more/a/p

pToday's show features two guests who were at last week's Truth in Energy conference of the US chapter of ASPO, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, in Washington, DC. Jeff Rubin, is former Chief Economist at the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and the author of Why Your World is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller. He explains why the price of oil the US media report is $25 too low, why today's triple-digit oil prices show that the days of low unemployment and 3% economic growth are over, and warns that 30-year US Treasury bonds are not as safe an investment as many people think. Jan Lundberg went from being an oil-industry analyst at Lundberg Survey to a self-described eco-warrior fighting petroleum pollution, car culture and sprawl development. He writes at Culture Change and promotes sail transport of freight. /p pa href=http://energybulletin.net/media/2011-11-07/triple-digit-oil-prices-block-growth-investments-petro-collapseread more/a/p

pA research study challenged the concept that Peak Oil will be a supply side phenomenon and predicts that the demand for oil may well peak before 2020 and then fall back to levels significantly below 2010 demand by 2035./p pThe world is nearing a paradigm shift in oil demand, said Peter Hughes of Ricardo. The predominant role of oil in the global energy mix is facing an ever greater challenge from a number of emerging trends. Over the past few years a near 'perfect storm' for oil demand has been forming and gathering strength, created by a preoccupation in many quarters about the availability of future supplies./p pa href=http://energybulletin.net/stories/2011-11-07/ricardo-study-suggests-global-oil-demand-may-peak-2020read more/a/p

pMore evidence for the disconnect between Nymex (WTI) and Brent prices surfaced this week. Although the spread has narrowed, Nymex rose to $94.16/barrel, almost seven dollars more than it was two weeks ago in my as Saturday report. Brent came in at $112.55, only a few dollars higher than it was on October 22. The alarm level remains the same./p pa href=http://energybulletin.net/stories/2011-11-07/saturday-oil-report-november-5-2011read more/a/p

pspan class=inline inline-leftimg src=http://energybulletin.net/sites/default/files/images/ASPO -USAlogo80.jpg alt= title= class=image image-thumbnail width=80 height=80 //spanA weekly roundup of peak oil events, including:br / -Oil and the global economybr / -The EU debt crisisbr / -Iran's nuclear programbr / -Chinabr / -Quote of the weekbr / -Briefs/p div class=image-clear/divpa href=http://energybulletin.net/stories/2011-11-07/peak-oil-review-november-7read more/a/p

pspan class=inline inline-leftimg src=http://energybulletin.net/sites/default/files/images/touficspeaks (1).thumbnail.JPG alt= title= class=image image-thumbnail width=100 height=75 //spanPeak oil is behind us. That much seems to be clear from what was said at the 5th meeting of the Italian section of the Association for the study of peak oil (ASPO) held on Oct 28 in Florence, Italy./p div class=image-clear/divpa href=http://energybulletin.net/stories/2011-11-07/aspo-italy-5-beyond-peak-oilread more/a/p

p- Kurt Cobb: Time to Worry: World Oil Production Finishes Six Years of No Growth (NEW)br / - Steve Levine's Weekly Wrap of energy newsbr / - ASPO-USA Conference Report: Friday Notesbr / - Gail Tverberg: New Dept. of Energy Priority-Setting Analysis Seriously Flawedbr / - Reuter's Exclusive: IEA draft outlook sees $212 oil in 2035/p pa href=http://energybulletin.net/stories/2011-11-06/peak-oil-nov-6read more/a/p

pEven a small interruption of the daily oil supply impacts our nation’s economic engine, but a sustained disruption would alter every aspect of our lives -- from food costs and distribution to what or if we eat, to manufacturing goods and services to freedom of movement. /p pA new CNA analysis finds if America reduces its current rate of oil consumption by 30 percent, and diversifies its fuel sources, the U.S. economy would be insulated from the impact of such disruptions -- even in the event of a complete shutdown of a strategic chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz, the international passageway for 33 percent of the world’s seaborne oil shipments. /p pMembers contributing to the report include some of our nation’s highest-ranking retired military leaders with 400 years of collective military experience./p pa href=http://energybulletin.net/stories/2011-11-05/cna-military-advisory-board-cut-us-oil-use-30-reduce-grave-national-security-riskread more/a/p

p- ASPO-USA Conference Report: Thursday Afternoon Notesbr / - The six natural resources most drained by our 7 billion peoplebr / - Peak Oil - Herausforderung für Sachsen: Bündnis90/Die Grünen präsentieren Studie des Postfossil-Instituts im Landtag/p pa href=http://energybulletin.net/stories/2011-11-05/peak-oil-nov-5read more/a/p

pspan class=inline inline-leftimg src=http://www.energybulletin.net/sites/default/files/images/ODAC.thumbnail.JPG alt= title= class=image image-thumbnail width=100 height=45 //spanIn a year when chaos is beginning to feel like the norm, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou’s out of the blue announcement calling a referendum on the latest Euro bailout plan caught even the most jaded observers by surprise. Although it looks as if the idea has now been abandoned, the likelihood of a still more serious financial crisis has surely moved a step closer.../p div class=image-clear/divpa href=http://energybulletin.net/stories/2011-11-04/odac-newsletter-nov-4read more/a/p

pspan class=inline inline-leftimg src=http://www.energybulletin.net/sites/default/files/images/ASPO -USAlogo80.jpg alt= title= class=image image-thumbnail width=80 height=80 //spanA midweekly roundup of peak oil news, including:br / -Developments this weekbr / -Nuclear troubles/p div class=image-clear/divpa href=http://energybulletin.net/stories/2011-11-03/peak-oil-notes-november-3read more/a/p

pAside from excursions here and there, Do the Math represents—in computer terms—a core dump of years of accumulated thoughts and analysis on energy, growth, and the largely unappreciated challenges we face on both short and long terms. During this queued process—with much more to come—I have made references to peak oil, but have refrained from a head-on treatment. As important as peak oil has been in motivating my quantitative exploration of life beyond fossil fuels, it seems overdue that I share my thoughts./p pa href=http://energybulletin.net/stories/2011-11-02/peak-oil-perspectiveread more/a/p

pWall Street is the best immediate target for a protest against financial inequity and corporate money in politics. Now, as Occupy movements pop up across the globe, Occupiers may be interested to know that big oil companies are as guilty as big banks in buying politicians and squeezing the 99%. And since today's fiat currency is really based on oil, any reform of finance needs to take on energy too./p pa href=http://energybulletin.net/stories/2011-11-01/top-5-ways-occupy-big-oilread more/a/p

pOne becomes nervous when a consensus begins to form around a Big New Idea -- it starts to sound like group think. So what are we to make of the cottage industry developing around the notion that the U.S. not only isn't facing an impending oil shortage -- it is on the cusp of being nearly energy independent, short of a margin of barrels that will be imported from friendly Canada and Mexico?/p pa href=http://energybulletin.net/stories/2011-11-01/group-think-or-us-about-be-energy-independentread more/a/p

pspan class=inline inline-leftimg src=http://energybulletin.net/sites/default/files/images/cmpm204_200.thumbnail.jpg alt= title= class=image image-thumbnail width=100 height=75 //spanThis turbulent, troubled global economy is precisely what Chris Martenson predicted in early 2010, “When Exponential Meets Reality” (episode 166). He asserts that we can no longer look at the economy without factoring in the terminal decline of its master resource — oil./p div class=image-clear/divpa href=http://energybulletin.net/media/2011-11-01/peak-moment-204-oil-puts-squeeze-economyread more/a/p